Modeling and forecasting the total number of cases and deaths due to pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has appeared as the predominant disease of the 21st century at the end of 2019 and was a drastic start with thousands of casualties and the COVID-19 victims in 2020. Due to the drastic effect, COVID-19 scientists are trying to work on pandemic diseases and Governments are interested in the development of methodologies that will minimize the losses and speed up the process of cure by providing vaccines and treatment for such pandemics. The development of a new vaccine for any pandemic requires long in vitro and in vivo trials to use. Thus the strategies require understanding how the pandemic is spreading in terms of affected cases and casualties occurring from this disease, here we developed a forecasting model that can predict the no of cases and deaths due to pandemic and that can help the researcher, government, and other stakeholders to devise their strategies so that the damages can be minimized. This model can also be used for the judicial distribution of resources as it provides the estimates of the number of casualties and number of deaths with high accuracy, Government and policymakers on the basis of forecasted value can plan in a better way. The model efficiency is discussed on the basis of the available dataset of John Hopkins University repository in the period when the disease was first reported in the six countries till the mid of May 2020, the model was developed on the basis of this data, and then it is tested by forecasting the no of deaths and cases for next 7 days, where the proposed strategy provided excellent forecasting. The forecast models are developed for six countries including Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Italy, and China using polynomial regression of degrees 3-5. But the models are analyzed up to the 6th-degree and the suitable models are selected based on higher adjusted R-square (R2 ) and lower root-mean-square error and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The values of R2 are greater than 99% for all countries other than China whereas for China this R2 was 97%. The high values of R2 and Low value of MAPE statistics increase the validity of proposed models to forecast the total no cases and total no of deaths in all countries. Iran, Italy, and Afghanistan also show a mild decreasing trend but the number of cases is far higher than the decrease percentage. Although India is expected to have a consistent result, more or less it depicts some other biasing factors which should be figured out in separate research.

Religion and urban political eco/pathology: exploring communalized coronavirus in South Asia

ABSTRACTwWe use the urban political ecology perspective to explore how communities of homo religiosus (re)configure politics of COVID-19 in India and Pakistan. This urban health crisis unfolds in five parallel registers of conflictualities: (i) where religious communities carve out a domain for self-governance of the pandemic with their own ‘knowledge and truths’, (ii) where embodied religious practices challenge or undermine state biopower and transform governmentalities, (iii) where the spatial dimension of conflict evolves into the crisis of technologies of governance, (iv) where religious identities are stigmatized and the minority groups are excluded and (v) where communalism organizes around international relations. It is argued that religious groups in South Asia influenced the urban political (eco)pathology with their disruptive potential which transformed biosecurity regimes and enhanced health risks on the one hand and on the other, they embraced and internalized discords of disease within their antagonistic communal and sectarian memories and histories and weaponized the pandemic to produce more cracks in the social fabric. This essay underscores the significance of unusual actors in the urban political ecology framework and calls for a renewed understanding of human–nature interface by incorporating religion and religious beliefs and how they view and shape the metabolic flows in the urban spaces for social sustainability of the city as a ‘natural object’.

Coronavirus nCOVID-19: A pandemic disease and the Saudi precautions.

Now nCOVID-19 has a foothold in many countries, and the threat of a pandemic situation has risen. Recently a novel coronavirus (nCOVID-19) has first emerged in China, causing multiple symptoms in humans and closely related to those caused by SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). The nCOVID-19 has reported in Wuhan city of China has recently infected over six million people and at least 0.4 million confirmed deaths all over the world, while 2.8 million people has recovered from this deadly virus. Many instances of this respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection have already reported in more than 216 countries and territories. In contrast, the majority of cases reported in the USA, Brazil, Russia, Spain, UK, Italy, France and many more countries. In today's context, the coronavirus is one of the significant issues faced by the world with plenty of cases. In these circumstances, rapid reviews which recommended by WHO (World Health Organization), and these recommendations are very significant, helpful and cover current data with different preventive measures developed by the Saudi CDC (Saudi Centre for Disease Prevention and Control). This review article describes the possible modes of transmission so that proper preventive actions should be taking. Importantly, this work mentioned the animal reservoir through which may infect humans, and it must be identified to break the transmission chain. In additions, this review paper briefly discussed the spread of the coronavirus in the Arabian Peninsula and what precaution measures are in place by each country to limit the spreading of this virus. Finally, since the number of infected people specifically those with close contact with nCOVID-19 patients is increasing daily and appears unstoppable, we used the preventive measures by pharmacists as part of health care professions.